企业安全生产相关表格-4-5spc2

Excersise 4-5 SPC
Year
Quarter
1994
I
II
p = 4
(even)
III
IV
1995
I
II
III
IV
1996
I
II
III
IV
1997
I
II
III
IV
1998
I
II
III
IV
Clear Plastics
Quarter
period
Demand Dt
Deseasonal
ized
Demand Dt
Dt (based
on
regression)
Seasonal
Factor St
Forecast
Et
At
bias
MSE
MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE
TS
Desaesonalized Demand Regression
I
1
2250
2820
0.80
2536
286
286
286
81573
286
13
13
1.00
II
2
1737
3046
0.57
1824
87
87
373
44610
187
5
9
2.00
SUMMARY OUTPUT
III
3
2412
3575
3273
0.74
2283
-129
129
244
35256
167
5
8
1.46
IV
4
7269
3784
3500
2.08
6301
-968
968
-723
260542
367
13
9
-1.97
Regression Statistics
I
5
3514
3965
3727
0.94
3352
-162
162
-886
213706
326
5
8
-2.71
Multiple R
0.955
II
6
2143
4070
3954
0.54
2368
225
225
-661
186517
309
10
9
-2.14
R Square
0.913
III
7
3459
4119
4181
0.83
2916
-543
543
-1203
201938
343
16
10
-3.51
Adjusted R Square
0.907
IV
8
7056
4272
4408
1.60
7935
879
879
-324
273264
410
12
10
-0.79
Standard Error
345.5
I
9
4120
4237
4634
0.89
4168
48
48
-277
243154
370
1
9
-0.75
Observations
16
II
10
2766
4274
4861
0.57
2911
145
145
-131
220950
347
5
9
-0.38
III
11
2556
4595
5088
0.50
3549
993
993
862
290567
406
39
11
2.12
ANOVA
IV
12
8253
4969
5315
1.55
9569
1316
1316
2177
410581
482
16
12
4.52
df
SS
MS
F
Significance F
I
13
5491
5390
5542
0.99
4984
-507
507
1670
398795
484
9
12
3.45
Regression
1
17497621
17497621 146.57518
8.347E-09
II
14
4382
6083
5769
0.76
3455
-927
927
743
431723
515
21
12
1.44
Residual
14 1671269.9 119376.42
III
15
4315
6575
5996
0.72
4182
-133
133
610
404115
490
3
12
1.25
Total
15
19168891
IV
16
12035
6509
6222
1.93
11202
-833
833
-223
422205
511
7
11
-0.44
I
17
5648
6490
6449
0.88
5800
152
152
-71
398724
490
3
11
-0.14
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II
18
3696
6688
6676
0.55
3998
302
302
231
381645
480
8
11
0.48
Intercept
2593 214.87342 12.066395
8.714E-09 2131.8895 3053.6057 2131.8895 3053.6057
III
19
4843
6903
0.70
4815
-28
28
204
361599
456
1
10
0.45
X Variable 1
226.9 18.737853 12.106824
8.347E-09 186.66715 267.04462 186.66715 267.04462
IV
20
13097
7130
1.84
12836
-261
261
-57
346930
446
2
10
-0.13
I
21
6616
Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:
557.68
II
22
4542
III
23
5448
IV
24
14469
Seasonal Factors
I
25
7432
I
0.899
II
26
7636
II
0.599
III
27
7840
III
0.698
IV
28
8044
IV
1.800
I
29
8248
II
30
8452
III
31
8656
IV
32
8860
Black Plastics
Quarter
period
Demand Dt
Deseasonal
ized
Demand Dt
Dt (based
on
regression)
Seasonal
Factor St
Forecast
Et
At
bias
MSE
MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE
TS
Desaesonalized Demand Regression
I
1
3200
3876
0.83
2952
-248
248
-248
61682
248
8
8
-1.00
II
2
7658
4140
1.85
7862
204
204
-44
51747
226
3
5
-0.19
SUMMARY OUTPUT
III
3
4420
4472
4404
1.00
4175
-245
245
-289
54508
233
6
5
-1.24
IV
4
2384
4657
4668
0.51
1936
-448
448
-737
91129
287
19
9
-2.57
Regression Statistics
I
5
3654
4944
4932
0.74
3756
102
102
-636
74969
250
3
8
-2.55
Multiple R
0.931
II
6
8680
5049
5196
1.67
9868
1188
1188
552
297539
406
14
9
1.36
R Square
0.867
III
7
5695
5132
5460
1.04
5176
-519
519
33
293529
422
9
9
0.08
Adjusted R Square
0.857
IV
8
1953
5892
5724
0.34
2373
420
420
453
278940
422
22
10
1.07
Standard Error
509.8
I
9
4742
6634
5987
0.79
4560
-182
182
271
251641
395
4
10
0.69
Observations
16
II
10
13673
6850
6251
2.19
11873
-1800
1800
-1529
550581
536
13
10
-2.85
III
11
6640
6791
6515
1.02
6177
-463
463
-1992
520032
529
7
10
-3.77
ANOVA
IV
12
2737
6573
6779
0.40
2811
74
74
-1918
477157
491
3
9
-3.90
df
SS
MS
F
Significance F
I
13
3486
6363
7043
0.49
5364
1878
1878
-40
711645
598
54
12
-0.07
Regression
1
23685916
23685916 91.145775
1.654E-07
II
14
13186
6308
7307
1.80
13878
692
692
651
695001
605
5
12
1.08
Residual
14
3638159
259868.5
III
15
5448
6932
7571
0.72
7178
1730
1730
2381
848128
680
32
13
3.50
Total
15
27324075
IV
16
3485
7887
7835
0.44
3249
-236
236
2145
798597
652
7
13
3.29
I
17
7728
8662
8099
0.95
6168
-1560
1560
585
894841
705
20
13
0.83
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II
18
16591
8989
8363
1.98
15883
-708
708
-123
872980
705
4
13
-0.17
Intercept
3612 317.02991
11.39318
1.815E-08 2932.0167
4291.941 2932.0167
4291.941
III
19
8236
8627
0.95
8179
-57
57
-181
827207
671
1
12
-0.27
X Variable 1
263.9 27.646322 9.5470297
1.654E-07 204.64474 323.23577 204.64474 323.23577
IV
20
3316
8891
0.37
3687
371
371
190
792727
656
11
12
0.29
I
21
6972
Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:
820.435
II
22
17888
III
23
9180
Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV
24
4125
Quarter
Total
I
25
7776
I
0.762
II
26
19893
II
1.899
III
27
10180
III
0.948
IV
28
4563
IV
0.415
I
29
8580
II
30
21898
III
31
11181
IV
32
5000
http://www.aliqq.cn
3459
7056
4120
2766
2412
7269
3514
2143
4315
12035
5648
3696
2556
8253
5491
4382
4843
13097
Clear Plastic Demand
('000 lbs)
Black Plastic Demand
('000 lbs)
3200
7658
2250
1737
4420
2384
4742
13673
6640
2737
3654
8680
5695
1953
3486
13186
8236
3316
5448
3485
7728
16591
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
('000 lbs)
Quarter
Quarterly Demand ABC Corporation (Q1 '94 - Q4 '98)
CR - 2026-3-16 20:18
4-5spc2.xls - Static Forecast
Excersise 4-5 SPC
Year
Quarter
1994
I
II
III
IV
1995
I
II
III
IV
1996
I
II
III
IV
1997
I
II
p = 4
(even)
III
IV
a1
=
0.10
1998
I
b1
=
0.10
II
g1
=
0.10
III
IV
Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20)
Clear Plastics
Quarter
period
Demand Dt
Level
Trend
Seasonal
Factor St
Forecast
Et
At
bias
MSE
MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE
TS
Desaesonalized Demand Regression
2593
227
I
1
2250
2788
224
0.90
2536
286
286
286
81573
286
13
13
1.00
II
2
1737
3000
223
0.60
1804
67
67
352
43000
176
4
8
2.00
SUMMARY OUTPUT
III
3
2412
3246
225
0.70
2248
-164
164
188
37604
172
7
8
1.10
IV
4
7269
3528
231
1.80
6249
-1020
1020
-831
288059
384
14
9
-2.17
Regression Statistics
I
5
3514
3778
232
0.89
3345
-169
169
-1000
236135
341
5
8
-2.93
Multiple R
0.955
II
6
2143
3968
228
0.60
2393
250
250
-749
207237
326
12
9
-2.30
R Square
0.913
III
7
3459
4269
236
0.70
2946
-513
513
-1262
215187
352
15
10
-3.58
Adjusted R Square
0.907
IV
8
7056
4441
229
1.83
8227
1171
1171
-91
359791
455
17
11
-0.20
Standard Error
345.5
I
9
4120
4664
229
0.89
4175
55
55
-35
320154
410
1
10
-0.09
Observations
16
II
10
2766
4871
226
0.59
2892
126
126
91
289734
382
5
9
0.24
III
11
2556
4946
211
0.71
3634
1078
1078
1169
369038
445
42
12
2.63
ANOVA
IV
12
8253
5100
206
1.80
9297
1044
1044
2213
429042
495
13
12
4.47
df
SS
MS
F
Significance F
I
13
5491
5389
214
0.89
4737
-754
754
1459
439717
515
14
12
2.83
Regression
1
17497621
17497621
146.5752
8.35E-09
II
14
4382
5787
232
0.59
3300
-1082
1082
377
491991
556
25
13
0.68
Residual
14
1671270
119376.4
III
15
4315
6040
234
0.69
4173
-142
142
235
460529
528
3
13
0.45
Total
15
19168891
IV
16
12035
6321
239
1.78
11194
-841
841
-606
475928
548
7
12
-1.11
I
17
5648
6528
236
0.91
5941
293
293
-313
452987
533
5
12
-0.59
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II
18
3696
6698
229
0.61
4097
401
401
88
436750
525
11
12
0.17
Intercept
2593
214.8734
12.0664
8.71E-09
2131.89
3053.606
2131.89
3053.606
III
19
4843
6931
230
0.70
4817
-26
26
62
413799
499
1
11
0.12
X Variable 1
226.9
18.73785
12.10682
8.35E-09
186.6671
267.0446
186.6671
267.0446
IV
20
13097
7173
231
1.80
12861
-236
236
-174
395901
486
2
11
-0.36
I
21
0.90
6675
Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:
607
II
22
0.60
4584
III
23
0.70
5473
IV
24
1.80
14567
Seasonal Factor
I
25
0.90
7508
I
0.899
II
26
0.60
5138
II
0.599
III
27
0.70
6116
III
0.698
IV
28
1.80
16229
IV
1.800
I
29
0.90
8341
II
30
0.60
5692
III
31
0.70
6758
IV
32
1.80
17891
p = 4
(even)
Black Plastics
a2
=
-0.33237074 Solver solution for minimizing MAD(20)
b2
=
-0.09638157
g2
=
0.074067548
Quarter
period
Demand Dt
Level
Trend
Seasonal
Factor St
Forecast
Et
At
bias
MSE
MAD
Percent
Error
MAPE
TS
Desaesonalized Demand Regression
3612
264
I
1
3200
3768
274
0.76
2952
-248
248
-248
61682
248
8
8
-1.00
II
2
7658
4045
274
1.90
7676
18
18
-230
31011
133
0
4
-1.72
SUMMARY OUTPUT
III
3
4420
4205
285
0.95
4095
-325
325
-555
55925
197
7
5
-2.81
IV
4
2384
4072
325
0.41
1862
-522
522
-1077
110043
278
22
9
-3.87
Regression Statistics
I
5
3654
4278
337
0.77
3377
-277
277
-1354
103344
278
8
9
-4.87
Multiple R
0.931
II
6
8680
4629
336
1.90
8762
82
82
-1272
87238
245
1
8
-5.18
R Square
0.867
III
7
5695
4634
367
0.96
4744
-951
951
-2222
203876
346
17
9
-6.42
Adjusted R Square
0.857
IV
8
1953
5144
354
0.43
2137
184
184
-2038
182634
326
9
9
-6.25
Standard Error
509.8
I
9
4742
5290
374
0.77
4258
-484
484
-2522
188388
344
10
9
-7.34
Observations
16
II
10
13673
5151
423
1.90
10745
-2928
2928
-5451
1027142
602
21
10
-9.05
III
11
6640
5165
462
0.98
5440
-1200
1200
-6651
1064746
656
18
11
-10.13
ANOVA
IV
12
2737
5352
489
0.42
2385
-352
352
-7003
986342
631
13
11
-11.10
df
SS
MS
F
Significance F
I
13
3486
6303
445
0.78
4576
1090
1090
-5913
1001835
666
31
13
-8.87
Regression
1
23685916
23685916
91.14578
1.65E-07
II
14
13186
6746
445
1.95
13179
-7
7
-5921
930279
619
0
12
-9.56
Residual
14
3638159
259868.5
III
15
5448
7768
389
1.00
7183
1735
1735
-4186
1068856
694
32
13
-6.04
Total
15
27324075
IV
16
3485
8176
387
0.43
3510
25
25
-4161
1002092
652
1
12
-6.38
I
17
7728
8058
436
0.77
6563
-1165
1165
-5326
1022982
682
15
13
-7.81
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
II
18
16591
8494
436
1.95
16591
0
0
-5326
966150
644
0
12
-8.27
Intercept
3612
317.0299
11.39318
1.82E-08
2932.017
4291.941
2932.017
4291.941
III
19
8236
9096
420
0.98
8723
487
487
-4839
927780
636
6
12
-7.61
X Variable 1
263.9
27.64632
9.54703
1.65E-07
204.6447
323.2358
204.6447
323.2358
IV
20
3316
10115
362
0.43
4092
776
776
-4063
911473
643
23
12
-6.32
I
21
0.78
5780
Estimate of standard deviation of forecast error:
804
II
22
1.95
14913
III
23
0.97
7642
Average of Seasonal Factor St
IV
24
0.42
3420
Quarter
Total
I
25
0.78
6501
I
0.762
II
26
1.95
16718
II
1.899
III
27
0.97
8540
III
0.948
IV
28
0.42
3811
IV
0.415
I
29
0.78
7222
II
30
1.95
18522
III
31
0.97
9437
IV
32
0.42
4201
8236
3316
5448
3485
7728
16591
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
Clear Plastic Demand
('000 lbs)
Black Plastic Demand
('000 lbs)
3200
7658
2250
1737
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
('000 lbs)
Quarter
Quarterly Demand ABC Corporation (Q1 '94 - Q4 '98)
CR - 2026-3-16 20:18
4-5spc2.xls - Winter